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Biological ramifications of climate-change-mediated oceanic multi-stressors

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 71–79 (2015)Cite this article

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Abstract

Climate change is altering oceanic conditions in a complex manner, and the concurrent amendment of multiple properties will modify environmental stress for primary producers. So far, global modelling studies have focused largely on how alteration of individual properties will affect marine life. Here, we use global modelling simulations in conjunction with rotated factor analysis to express model projections in terms of regional trends in concomitant changes to biologically influential multi-stressors. Factor analysis demonstrates that regionally distinct patterns of complex oceanic change are evident globally. Preliminary regional assessments using published evidence of phytoplankton responses to complex change reveal a wide range of future responses to interactive multi-stressors with <20–300% shifts in phytoplankton physiological rates, and many unexplored potential interactions. In a future ocean, provinces will encounter different permutations of change that will probably alter the dominance of key phytoplankton groups and modify regional productivity, ecosystem structure and biogeochemistry. Consideration of regionally distinct multi-stressor patterns can help guide laboratory and field studies as well as the interpretation of interactive multi-stressors in global models.

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Figure 1: Global maps of the change in four illustrative ocean properties between the decades (mean of 2081–2100) minus present (mean 1981–2000) from the CESM1(BEC) model simulations.
Figure 2: Relationship between global and regional climate-driven trends in ocean properties.
Figure 3: Results of the factor analysis (Factors 1–6) based on data presented in Fig. 1 (two-dimensional global maps of the change in each ocean property between the decades 2081–2100 minus 1981–2000).

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Acknowledgements

S.C.D. acknowledges support from the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE; grant EF-0424599), a National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center. P.W.B. acknowledges support from IMAS, University of Tasmania. S.T.L. acknowledges support from H. Biester and Heinrich-Boell-Foundation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7005, Australia

    Philip W. Boyd

  2. Institute for Geoecology, TU Braunschweig, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany

    Sinikka T. Lennartz

  3. Geomar, Helmholtz-Center for Oceanographic Research, 24105 Kiel, Germany

    Sinikka T. Lennartz

  4. Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA

    David M. Glover & Scott C. Doney

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Contributions

P.W.B. and S.C.D. designed the study; S.T.L. carried out the statistical analyses and provided the display items; D.M.G. carried out the statistical analysis; P.W.B. wrote the manuscript with contributions from S.C.D., S.T.L. and D.M.G.

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Correspondence to Philip W. Boyd.

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Boyd, P., Lennartz, S., Glover, D. et al. Biological ramifications of climate-change-mediated oceanic multi-stressors. Nature Clim Change 5, 71–79 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2441

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